Yesterday's slight drop in tin prices spurred trading activity in the spot market. Tin prices maintained a fluctuating downward trend during the night session. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 5, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) fluctuated downward slightly during the night session, closing at 283,490 yuan/mt, down 0.39% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) US President Trump recently stated in an interview that he would not allow Nvidia to sell its most advanced chips to China. On November 4, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing current and former US government officials, that ahead of the US-China summit, Trump had considered discussing a request from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to allow sales of a new generation of AI chips to China, but ultimately decided not to address the matter during the meeting due to near-unanimous opposition from senior advisors. Senior officials, including US Secretary of State Rubio, US Trade Representative Greer, and Commerce Secretary Lutnick, argued that such sales would threaten national security. The Wall Street Journal noted that Trump's final decision marked a victory for Rubio and other advisors over Huang, though Huang's efforts to sell Blackwell chips to China are expected to continue. (2) According to data from Counterpoint Research, sales of the iPhone 17-series in China during the first 10 days after launch were 14% higher than those of the previous year's iPhone 16-series, with the standard model leading in sales. In the first two weeks of October, Apple ranked first in domestic sales with a 21% market share. (3) Weifu High-Tech stated in its investor relations activity record that the company's millimeter-wave radar products have secured nominations from several domestic mainstream OEMs and will be successively installed in multiple passenger car models expected to be launched soon, with a production and sales target of approximately 3 million units by 2026. These products offer significant cost advantages, economies of scale, and brand quality assurance. By leveraging the dual resources of Bosch's global supply chain and Weifu's localized supply chain, along with a comprehensive and rapid service response mechanism, the company can provide efficient and stable support to customers. Additionally, the products meet export certification requirements for over 100 countries worldwide, enabling direct service to global market customers and providing strong support for Weifu Zhigan's global business expansion. In the future, Weifu Zhigan will continue to accelerate the development and application of front radar, 4D imaging radar, and distributed radar technologies.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening overall in major production areas such as Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remains cautious, and high prices are noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sector demand.

Spot Market: Trading activity in the spot tin ingot market showed slight signs of recovery. Although most downstream enterprises still consider current prices high and remain cautious in their purchasing, some downstream enterprises conducted small-scale restocking yesterday afternoon when tin prices declined. However, the current price level does not support large-scale stockpiling activities.

[Data Source Statement: Data not from public sources are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference purposes. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making recommendations. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]